The So What, What if, War
When it comes to the Canadian Armed Forces, nearly every government over the last 50 years has had a very ‘laissez-faire’ attitude towards it. Politicians are always happy to have a photo-op with a group of soldiers, and your average Canadian is thrilled to watch the Snowbirds soar over their stadium, but the underlying frame of mind for both is, ‘so what’.
So what if they don’t have new ships or aircraft? So what if they don’t have modern anti-tank weapons? So what if their personnel numbers are historically low? So what…it doesn’t affect me.
Well Canada, what if war?
Sixteen years ago, in a drafty ATCO trailer on a cold winter day at CFB Borden, a British Exchange officer was pacing back and forth in front of my class. He was trying hard to restrain his growing anger as he stormed left, then right and stopped suddenly wheeling toward us yelling, “SO WHAT? WHAT IF?” After the outburst, he inhaled deeply, and asked more calmly, “why don’t you understand?”
The class was about strategic planning, and I was one of the students not comprehending what the testy British gentleman was trying to teach. If I’m honest, I still don’t, so I can’t fault him for his anger. But the phrase, or perhaps more likely the delivery, stuck with me, and I adapted the saying as a test for my reasoning before taking any sort of action. It has seen me well prepared for most of life’s challenges; Canadians and their government need to apply it to their conversations regarding our Armed Forces.
The Chief of Defence Staff has certainly been sounding the ‘what if’ alarm. In an interview with Joyce Napier on CTV news in late November he said, “The military we have now is going to be increasingly called upon to support Canada and to support Canadian interest, to support our allies overseas, but as well at home.” So what?
By any standard, and for any military, that’s a tall order, but for Canada’s it’s an impossible task. Ours is a force that is 10,000 understrength, whose frigates are frail, can field less than 100 main battle tanks, has a smattering of helicopters, a bunch of hand me down fighters, and submarines with more hours in the air than submerged. So what?
This the reason the CDS has been increasingly vocal in the media, drawing attention to the increasingly pathetic situation our military is in. He and his staff have run the ‘what if’ list, and what they found seriously concerned him. So What?
Not dissimilar to the geopolitics that existed prior to WW1, the world is once again a powder keg waiting to explode. One wrong move in the Russian-Ukraine war, or with a belligerent China, coupled with increased demand for domestic support, and Canada will find itself in a very familiar situation. Just like at the outset of every other major conflict it has ever entered, it will be woefully unprepared. So what?
It's hardly a tradition to be proud of, yet it seems about as Canadian as maple syrup and hockey. Thankfully, our citizens and industry have always stepped up when needed and gone on to achieve incredible things in combat, medicine, logistics and diplomacy. But…hear me out, ‘what if’ it didn’t have to be this way?
What if we made military procurement about timely, cost-effective delivery of functional equipment, and not regional economic vote farming? What if we had a defence policy tailored to our domestic and foreign policy as it related to our willingness to spend the appropriate portion of our GDP to maintain the capabilities within said policy?
For those who follow Canadian defence issues none of what I’ve written is novel. So what?
If those with the influence, and reins of government don’t start explaining to Canadians in a way they can understand why it is we need to urgently revamp and re-equip our Armed Forces, they’re going to wish they had when ‘what if’ turns into ‘what now’?